The U.S. Travel Association has released a new report predicting a slower travel growth in 2025 — but an uptick in 2026 and beyond. The report, which sources data driven by the Tourism Economics forecasting model, shows that while domestic leisure travel is predicted to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and domestic business travel is expected to grow 1.5%, international inbound travel to the U.S. is predicted to decrease by 6.3% for the first time since 2020 and reach just 85% of traffic levels from 2019.
The report cites significantly fewer travelers from Canada to the U.S. as the primary driver of the inbound travel decrease, with visits from other countries expected to remain flat through 2025 due to uncertainty over visa fees and processing and negative sentiment toward the U.S. in key markets.
International inbound travel is projected to increase 3.7% in 2026 and continue to increase in the years following, due to U.S.-hosted events like the FIFA World Cup; America’s 250th anniversary celebrations; the 2028 Summer Olympic Games; Men’s and Women’s Rugby World Cups in 2031; and the 2034 Winter Olympic Games. The report adds that total U.S. spending is projected to grow 1.1% to $1.35 trillion in 2025 and reach $1.49 trillion by 2029.
